Abstract:

Grain production has a crucially important status in the Chinese economy. It is of great importance to forecasting grain output for the whole country as well as major production regions several months ahead of harvest time, which may be helpful to arrange grain production, distribution and consumption of the corresponding year. At the same time, the grain supply and demand situation for China has changed sharply in recent years, grain security has become an increasingly crucial issue of the government. 

The presentation will firstly introduce the research on national grain output prediction and that for the 4 major grain production regions, secondly present the construction framework of models for China and Henan province as examples. Thirdly, from the consumption perspective, the presentation will introduce pork consumption prediction models & empirical results. Finally, an overview of the ongoing research on grain demand prediction will be given.